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Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Is volatility on the rise?

Lets look at the VIX daily chart first.


That looks like a possible series of higher lows forming.  Is this for real or just some fun and games by the option players?  Lets look at historical volatility in SPX.


The historical volatility in the lower pane is also making higher lows.  They do not coincide with the VIX lows though.  Notice the VIX made a lower low in March while actual volatility made a higher low.  The volatility increased each of the last three summers as the sell in May pattern played out.  I can't say the trend is strong enough to be definitive yet, but the door is open to a volatility increase again.

Bob

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