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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, May 24, 2013

Current sentiment picture

Optimism picked up a bit this week.  Here is the AAII survey to start with.

Source

I guess individual investors woke up and realized the market was going up.  There was a big surge of 10 percentage points in the number of bulls.  This isn't the most optimistic they have been in the last year, but it is pretty close.  Was that just in time for the top?

Next up is the NAAIM survey.

Source

The money managers took a little off the table this week.  However, this survey is still in the upper end of its range.  There is plenty of downside fuel should they be moved to sell more. 

Here is the II survey.

Source

The number of bulls has reached the highest level in the last two years.  The number of bears continues to be extremely low.  It was just above the 2 year low set a couple of months ago.  This is pretty frothy and consistent with the onset of a correction.

You cannot make an argument that everybody is bearish.  All the sentiment survey's presented here are consistent with short term tops in the market.  After the key reversal day we had this week a correction seems pretty likely.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.