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Monday, May 20, 2013

Current sentiment picture

A little more optimism crept into the market last week.  Here is the NAAIM to start with.


Money managers added long exposure again.  This survey continues to be at historically high levels.  The prior week somebody said they were at -125 (leveraged short).  This week the most short response we -2 (effectively neutral).  Every time they short they get screwed for sure.  There is limited fuel on the upside here since this is at bullish extremes.

Next up is the II survey.


The number of bulls is now up near the extremes of the last two years.  The number of bears remains near the lowest levels of the last two years.  The spread between the two at 34.2 is the widest in the last two years.  The rule of thumb on this survey is that a spread of 30 is extreme.  We are more then extreme now.

Here is the latest AAII survey.


The bulls ticked down last week and are just about at the historical average.  Clearly nowhere near extreme readings and clearly less bullish then the other surveys.  There is probably plenty of upside fuel here if they decide it is safe to enter the market.  Just a reminder though that at tops this survey is usually less bullish then the others.

The NAAIM and II surveys are at really bullish extremes consistent with short term tops.  Does that matter in today's market?  Beats me.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.