If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, May 20, 2013

Current sentiment picture

A little more optimism crept into the market last week.  Here is the NAAIM to start with.

Source

Money managers added long exposure again.  This survey continues to be at historically high levels.  The prior week somebody said they were at -125 (leveraged short).  This week the most short response we -2 (effectively neutral).  Every time they short they get screwed for sure.  There is limited fuel on the upside here since this is at bullish extremes.

Next up is the II survey.

Source

The number of bulls is now up near the extremes of the last two years.  The number of bears remains near the lowest levels of the last two years.  The spread between the two at 34.2 is the widest in the last two years.  The rule of thumb on this survey is that a spread of 30 is extreme.  We are more then extreme now.

Here is the latest AAII survey.

Source

The bulls ticked down last week and are just about at the historical average.  Clearly nowhere near extreme readings and clearly less bullish then the other surveys.  There is probably plenty of upside fuel here if they decide it is safe to enter the market.  Just a reminder though that at tops this survey is usually less bullish then the others.

The NAAIM and II surveys are at really bullish extremes consistent with short term tops.  Does that matter in today's market?  Beats me.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.