Current sentiment picture

It looks like individual investors finally figured out the market was going up.  Here is the AAII survey.

Source

The number of bulls climbed to over 40 this week.  The long run average is 39 so this is just barely above the norm.  This was the only survey that was actually bearish at any time this year.  Since this is in the normal range it is not telling us much other then nobody can use it as a contrarian sign to be bullish anymore.

Next up is the NAAIM survey.

Source

It was little changed this week.  It is still in the high range of its entire history going back to 2006.  Sentiment has cooled some from earlier in the year, but is still very bullish.  No sign of the bears here.

Here is a look at the latest II survey.

Source

The bulls ticked up again this week.  The more important number though is the bears.  They have been under 20% for seven of the last nine weeks.  This is in the extreme low end of this survey's historical range.  This is very consistent with tops preceding pullbacks lasting weeks rather then days.

Everybody keeps telling me this is the most hated rally and everybody is bearish.  So why are all the sentiment surveys bullish and people are loading up on margin.  Margin debt was near record levels way back in March.  I would not be surprised to see it at new record highs since the market kept rising since then.  Bears do not exist in large numbers.  They have been put back in their caves.  The bulls are running rampant in their pastures.  If sentiment is signaling anything it would be of caution.

Bob