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Friday, May 31, 2013

Construction slow down?

In XHB vs lumber I showed how XHB and lumber tend to trend together.  Recently lumber prices had dropped dramatically, but XHB was still going up.  I wondered whether lumber would turn around or XHB.
Lets revisit the latest chart.

 Lumber prices have continued to decline.  Crashing actually.  XHB has pulled back a little bit.  To add intrigue to the situation check out this chart.


Architectural billings have taken a bit of a tumble along with lumber.  There seems to be a real slow down in the building pipeline.  I think this increases the risk the home builder stocks may see a pullback fairly soon.  I think the pop in lumber that started in Oct. was Sandy related.  The crash probably means the majority of the rebuilding is close to over.  That should mean the positive economic affects from Sandy will be waning.  Whether slowing economic data is good or bad for stocks is an open question.  More QE or less?


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