If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Interesting charts 4/2

Here are a few interesting things I ran across.

Source

I think that chart pretty much speaks for itself.  Companies are lowering expectations at a higher rate then the last few quarters.  But I guess we all know fundamentals don't matter.

This next chart shows the effect the global slow down is having.

Source

Companies with little foreign exposure are not having earnings expectations reduced like those companies with a lot of exposure.  This is the global recession at work.

This chart shows retail sales getting pretty droopy looking.

Source

I doubt the full affect of the tax hikes have been felt yet.  People usually change their habits slowly.  There is also a lot of things being replaced from the Sandy damage that is definitely pumping up the economic data.  There is tens of billions of dollars of insurance money flowing into the economy.  This first quarter growth is likely to be pretty large because of it.  That affect will taper off over time.  It is pretty hard to say at what rate that will happen though.

Here is a look at durable goods.

Source

This chart shows very nicely the bounce after Sandy hit.  It was sure looking recession like before that though.  How much longer will the Sandy bounce last?  I suspect that most of that will be in over the next month or two.  By then most easily repaired structures should be fixed and things replaced.  Full replacement structures take considerably more time and the positive affects are more scattered out.  It is going to take some time to sort out what is real and long lasting and what is temporary from Sandy.

Bob


No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.