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Monday, April 29, 2013

Durable goods

The durable goods came in below expectations as a lot of data recently has.  Here is a couple of ways of looking at the data.



It is really hard to make a case that the economy is getting better.  These charts looks like we are in a recession or about to be.  What happens if the economy goes through the mid year slow down it has been experiencing the last few years?  From this weak of a condition it seems very likely it would go into recession.

To listen to the pundits on TV talk about how good the economy is doing is quite laughable.  There is a lot of data that suggests the economy is the weakest it has been since the last recession ended.  The revenue numbers are coming in light this earnings season.  It is possible the 1st quarter will end up with negative revenue growth.  That will put more pressure on earnings and could be a catalyst for layoffs.  If that happens it would be the final straw in this recovery and will surely lead to recession.


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