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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, April 29, 2013

Durable goods

The durable goods came in below expectations as a lot of data recently has.  Here is a couple of ways of looking at the data.

Source

 Source

It is really hard to make a case that the economy is getting better.  These charts looks like we are in a recession or about to be.  What happens if the economy goes through the mid year slow down it has been experiencing the last few years?  From this weak of a condition it seems very likely it would go into recession.

To listen to the pundits on TV talk about how good the economy is doing is quite laughable.  There is a lot of data that suggests the economy is the weakest it has been since the last recession ended.  The revenue numbers are coming in light this earnings season.  It is possible the 1st quarter will end up with negative revenue growth.  That will put more pressure on earnings and could be a catalyst for layoffs.  If that happens it would be the final straw in this recovery and will surely lead to recession.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.