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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Daily update 4/30

SPX inching closer to 1600.  A new record high close that beat the old record by a whopping 3 points.  Clearly SPX is approaching 1600 with trepidation.  Every time it gets above 1595 it stops in its tracks until they sell it off a bit then they rush in to buy the dip.  My guess is they will gap it up and over 1600 to get through it.  That seems to be the usual ploy when they run into strong resistance.  If that happens we will find out if rally chasers show up or not.  Lets look at the daily SPX chart.


SPX is still hugging the red line.  I guess it is a good thing for bulls it is sloped upwards, LOL.  Volume picked up again today.  Must have been because of the little news induced dip this morning.  Here is a look at the SSO 195 minute chart.


I redrew the up trend line since it was waffling around the other one.  Lets see if it reacts to this one better.  I also added an upper trend line as it looks like price is possibly forming a rising wedge pattern.  That might add a little bit to the bearishness of breaking that lower line.  I think the more important line for bulls is the red line.  You can see selling picked up when we fell back below it earlier in the month.  Falling through a second time could cause even more selling pressure to come in. 

Last night I showed the odd Nova/Ursa ratio chart.  Well here it is again because it got even odder yesterday.

Source

Yesterday it popped back above where it was two days ago.  As you can see this has no comparable move in the last year.  I guess people are having trouble making up their mind what to do. 

Now comes May.  The last three years the market has sold off.  What will it be this time?  From what I see in the media there seems to be mostly two opinions.  We either keep going up with no correction or we have a little correction like 5% that the sideline money rushes in to buy.  I think option two is unlikely.  I think we either keep going up or have a much deeper correction.  Either of those two options are more likely to catch the most people off guard.  I guess we will find out pretty soon.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.