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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, April 29, 2013

Daily update 4/29

SPX makes a slight new closing high.  Here is the daily chart.


For some odd reason SPX has trouble getting above the upper red trend line from the expanding pattern that developed back in Feb.  Volume dropped way off today on this retest of the early April high.  Lets take a look at the SSO 195 minute chart.


SSO got back above the short term uptrend line this morning.  It ended the day right about on top of it.  Will it bounce off it tomorrow morning or break back below it again?  Price is getting pretty extended from the 18 SMA on this time frame.  Upside may be a little tougher to come by without an intraday pullback. Check out the oddity of the Nova/Ursa chart.

Source

After popping up to one of the highest levels in the last year on Thurs. it went back negative on Friday.  That does not seem like much of a move down to cause such a big move on the ratio.  It went down more then it went up on Thurs.  That suggests to me that traders do not have a lot of confidence in this market moving higher.  Could that be because we are closing in on May?

I have the feeling a lot of people are waiting for SPX 1600 to sell.  There might be significant resistance there.  The bias is still up, but conviction level seems to be low.  Price is getting a little extended in the short term.  What does all that add up to for tomorrow?  Being it is the end of the month it could be pretty much a do nothing day unless there is some news to shake things up.  Today was end of month mark up day.  It seems like a move up to 1600 early in the day in the current extended condition could be met with significant selling.  Other then that, it would be hard to predict.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.