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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Daily update 4/23

This is pretty strange.  Here is the Nova/Ursa ratio chart from yesterday.

Despite the decent rally yesterday the ratio actually dropped.  The 14 DMA is getting ever closer to a negative crossover.  This site gets updated to late to get into the daily update on the same day.  It will be interesting to see how it moves after today's up day and approach of the highs.  It is starting to look pretty similar to what happened at the top last fall.  Stay tuned.

Nothing like some bad global economic data to spark a rally in stocks.  We all know markets can act irrational for long periods of time.  This one is almost bordering on the absurd.  People clearly have zero fear that anything can go wrong.  What are the odds they will be right?  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX closed back above its 2007 high and clearly back in the price channel.  Is it going to test the all time high again?  The bias flipped back to up one more time.  Lets zoom in to the SSO 195 minute chart.

The bias on this time frame flipped back to up this morning.  SSO did not get a higher close on the second bar to confirm that yet. 

There are quite a few divergences in the indexes.  Here is the Russell2000 for instance.

As you can see it is lagging behind considerably.  There is no shortage of indexes like this.  The market continues to look like a significant top is forming.  Companies are missing on revenue and lowering guidance.  It actually makes sense for the market to top.  I suspect it will do so, but that does not mean it won't jerk around a while first.


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