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Monday, April 22, 2013

Daily update 4/22

SPX followed through on its open after a little deeper retracement then I would have expected.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX did not close above the key 18 SMA today.  It touched it, but turned back.  Volume fell off quite a bit today.  The bias indicator flipped back to down today.  I think it is showing some instability here.  SPX closed right about where the lower channel trend line is the way I have drawn it.  When I drew it I used the lowest close in Dec. not the lowest candle tail price.  If the lowest price was used SPX would still be inside it.  It is a bit subjective on how you draw those.  In this case the upper channel trend line fits better with the lower line the way I have drawn it.  It might matter now because SPX is in position to kiss my trend line goodbye today.   Tomorrow could be a key day.  Will it climb back into the channel or get rejected?  Lets zoom in to the SSO 195 minute chart.

SSO stopped at the under side of its 50 SMA.  The bias is still down on this time frame.  I put in a lower trend line for this two day rally.  I would expect a break of that trend line to usher in considerably more downside. 

The breadth was only 56% positive today. When you combine that with the big drop in volume it suggests a rather lethargic bounce off the daily 50 SMA.  I think the ball is back in the bears court now.  We rallied back up to the daily 18 SMA and lower channel trend line.  This would be a good place for them to show up if they have the desire.  I will be watching for a roll over the next two days.

Chart practice has been updated with JNPR the stock tonight.


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