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Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Daily update 4/2

That was odd.  SPX ended the day at a new high close,  It was less then 3 points from its all time intraday high and it didn't get there.  However, that was not the odd part.  SPX closed up .52%, but the NYSE breadth was negative on the day.  You don't see that very often.  The defensive sectors led the charge on the upside while cyclical sectors were all down.  The transports were even down 1.2%.  It looks like some people are getting itchy fingers and have started to hit sell buttons.  Here is the SPX daily chart.

SPX could not close above that pesky red trend line.  Funny how that works.  Same thing on the SSO 195 minute chart.

The first bar today was back inside the channel, but the afternoon sell off took it back below.  The bulls are trying, but they are finding resistance here. 

Today continued the pattern of every other day a different direction.  Will that continue with a down day tomorrow?  That alternating pattern in itself is a sign of distribution.  Add to that the defensive sectors leading on the upside and cyclical sectors starting to break down and this market is quacking like a top.  

Earlier in the year I was thinking we would get a significant pullback and then a fairly quick retest of the highs.  I guess the market had different ideas.  It looks prepared for a longer duration sell off now.   I don't know how much more testing we are going to do here, but I am convinced we are going to make some kind of important top soon.


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