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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

A new look at the Nova/Ursa ratio

I finally found a site that shows the Nova/Ursa ratio in a very useful format.  Unlike many sentiment surveys that are purely opinion based, this one is based on actual money.  The site that I used to look at it has not worked properly for a long time.  I like this one much better.  Check out this chart.


The 14 DMA (red line) seems to be very useful.  Generally speaking, when it it above zero the market is in rally mode.  Over the last year crossing below zero has been a good indication of a correction starting.  This is rather limited history and last year was tranquil compared to other years recently.  However, it is kind of interesting.  The sentiment indicator itself is also useful.  Big surges to the upside tend to see the market follow through on the upside.  Spikes down with the 14 DMA above zero appear to work as a short term oversold indicator.  I don't have enough history here just yet.  I will keep an eye on it in the future to see how well it works though.


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