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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

TLT and index divergences

TLT continues to look like a bottom.  Here is the daily chart.

TLT had a bounce in late Feb. that failed at the 50 SMA.  That led to new lows.  However, it bounced right back and is again testing its 50 SMA.  The futures are down big this morning and TLT is up over $1 premarket so it will be well above its 50 SMA today.  That should confirm a bottom is in place.

I also noticed a lot of indexes did not participate in yesterday's retest of the 3/14 high by SPX.  European indexes were also beginning to diverge.  In yesterday's daily update I noted the volume pattern still looked like distribution to me.  A close below 1538 on SPX would confirm the short term double top pattern.  With the futures down big this morning and all the divergences I see, I believe yesterday was likely the high.  I think we are going to end up below 1538 soon.


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