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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 11/10/20

Up 11/4/20

Up 11/9/20

Short term

? 11/18/20

Up 11/5/20

? 11/18/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, March 25, 2013

More signs of global slowdown

The HSBC Emerging markets index saw the Feb. print at the lowest level since last Aug.  Here is the latest chart.

 Source

From the article.

Data broken down by broad sector showed that the slowdown in the pace of expansion was broad-based across service providers and manufacturers. Goods production rose at the slowest rate since November, while services activity growth eased to a six-month low.

Here is the Markit flash PMI for the Eurozone.

Source

From the article.

TheMarkit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 47.9 in February to 46.5 in March,
according to the flash estimate. The decline signalled an acceleration in the rate of contraction
of business activity for the second consecutive month to the steepest experienced for four months. 
With the exception of a marginal increase in January of last year, business activity has fallen
continually since September 2011.  

Manufacturing output fell in March at the fastest rate since December, while business activity in the service sector suffered the steepest decline since October.

Check out this chart that separates out France and Germany.

You might recall that France implemented a lot of tax hikes after President Hollande was elected.  That is pretty similar to the policy the Democrats in this country want to employ.  It seems to be totally destroying the French economy at the moment.  Are we going to end up trying the same experiment?

To add insult to injury check out this chart.

Source

The latest Goldman Sachs global leading indicator is now clearly in slowdown mode.  Last month it was just on the edge. 

The latest data seems to confirm the weakness seen in the industrial metals charts.  Indeed the global economy appears to be slowing again.  Remember there are enough OECD countries reporting negative GDP to indicate we are likely in a global recession.  If the recession is starting to get worse it would increase the risk of more companies lowering future earnings expectations.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.