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Monday, March 4, 2013

Daily update 3/4

Today was an odd day.  SPX was up .46% and NYSE breadth was barely positive.  My big cap, multi industry watchlist has 48 stocks in it and only 14 ended the day positive.  There were only 5 stocks up 1% or more and 17 stocks down more then 1%.  I can't recall ever seeing such a big disparity like that.  That suggests to me upside leadership was pretty narrow today.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

The volume dropped off again like every other day SPX gets up into this price area.  SPX closed just fractionally below the 2/28 high.  I hate this kind of pattern around the 18 SMA.  With the 6 SMA still below the 18 and the failure to close above the 2/28 high, it is hard to say this is a clean move back to the upside.  It may be, but there is some room for doubt in this chart.  Lets zoom in to the SPY 195 minute chart.

It looks like an ascending triangle forming on this time frame.  The upper trend line has three hits now.  We ended the day right at the line.  Will we power through tomorrow or get turned back again?  Futures are up slightly as I write this, but who knows where they will be by morning.  As price has moved into the apex, it will break one of those trend lines soon.  The volume was very light today on both bars.  The light volume is very noticeable on the daily chart as well.  If it breaks out to the upside, will it keep going or run into the lower channel line and turn back?  The breadth today was very curious.  I am not sure the market was as strong as it looked.  Will we make new highs tomorrow or will the bears show up to play again?  My guesses have not worked out very good the last two days.  I think I will pass on guessing on this one, LOL.

Chart practice has been updated with NFLX the stock today.


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