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Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Daily update 3/26

The market pattern of every other day in a different direction repeated today.  Will the pattern repeat tomorrow or will the bulls come out to play again?  SPX made a slight new high close.  Here is the daily chart.

SPX stopped right at the under side of the upper red trend line.  Volume dropped today.  In fact it has dropped on the last three up days.  The pattern is still showing distribution.  Lets zoom in to the SSO 195 minute chart.

SSO ended the day right at the lower price channel trend line.  It closed above the red resistance line though.  The big rally into the close was on very light volume.  I looked at SPY and it had the same very light volume on the last bar.  That would seem to indicate that sellers were absent in the afternoon and let the market drift up into the close.

Did today signal that the bulls are winning the consolidation battle?  Will they show up again tomorrow or will the bears return?  Despite the big up day in stocks TLT ended the day positive as well.  We are still in the confines of a double top. Despite the higher close today, the number of new highs dropped from 305 yesterday to 245 today.  That combined with the light volume and the action in TLT makes it pretty hard to say the bulls are fully in control here.  They need to prove they are willing to push price into new high ground and keep it there.   SPX has spent almost two weeks consolidating just below its all time high.  I think we should be getting very close to a resolution now. 

After three weeks of almost no movement in the markets I am having trouble finding anything interesting to write about.  Articles may be a bit sporadic until things get more interesting.


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