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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Daily update 3/19

I remember vividly seeing Maria Bartiromo on the floor of the NYSE on the last trading day in Aug. of 2000 imploring people to buy stocks.  She said when the big boys get back in Sept. they will be buying everything in sight.  That was the final high before the 2000-02 bear market got started.  That turned out to be a great sell signal.  Has the Maria Bartiromo sell signal fired again?  In the March 18 USA Today money section there is an article where Maria interviews Ralph Acampora about why now is a great time to buy stocks.  Four years into the bull market and this is the first time I have seen an article by her.  Why now?  Like I said before, a major top does not get any more obvious then this. 

A third day down in a row, amazing.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

Dip buyers showed up late in the day and SPX closed off its lows.  It is still above its 18 SMA.  Volume picked up today.  Lets zoom in to the SSO 195 minute chart.

SSO closed below the lower channel trend line.  The last two times it did that it continued lower.  Will it make it three for three?  There was a lot of volume on the last bar.  There is a FED meeting tomorrow and the market has a tendency to gap up on those days.  Was all that volume people piling in for such an event?  Breaking today's low would put all those buyers under water and should generate more selling pressure.  On the upside, price needs to get back inside the price channel and stay there.  I am not sure that is going to happen.  Check out the TLT chart.

TLT continues to look like it has put in an important bottom.  This could be a warning that the rally in stocks that started last June is coming to an end.  This is no time to be complacent about the market.  We could be at a very important inflection point.


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