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Friday, March 15, 2013

Daily update 3/15

And so the Dow winning streak ends.  What now?  Here is the SPX daily chart.

SPX is still above the upper red trend line.  How much longer can it stay there?  Lets zoom in to the 195 minute SSO chart.

I think I got all the lines added I had on SPY.  The price over the last couple of weeks looks like it is tracing out a rising wedge pattern marked by the purple trend lines.  Price went all the way to the apex of the pattern not wanting to drop out the bottom prematurely, LOL.  The way this market struggles to go up it seems unlikely to break out the top and accelerate.  I think next week it will end up breaking that lower trend line and initiate a pullback.  Part of my thinking is the TLT chart.

I posted about TLT and a possible bottom the other day.  It has been doing some testing around the 2/1 low. Every time the bears knocked it down intraday it fought back and did not break down.  Today it again closed above the 2/1 low on good volume.  This looks pretty positive to me. 

We have SPX looking like a top and TLT looking like a bottom at the same time.  I know it is heresy to say the market might go down, but I think that is what is going to happen starting next week.  The Nov. option expiration week was an important turning point.  In looking at these charts I think this week has the potential to also be one.  March historically is full of major turning points.  I keep hearing people saying there is nothing to worry about until May.  I actually heard a trader on Bloomberg TV today berate another trader for saying there could be a pullback.   It seems to me that when the majority is most sure of what is going to happen next in the market, something else usually does.  This could be one of those times.

Chart practice has been updated with URBN the stock today.


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