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Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Factory orders

Here is a look at the latest factory orders data for durable goods

The factory orders data has recovered only slightly from the big dip last year.  This still looks like we could be in a recession.  Is this data set to improve and show an upturn in the economy?

This chart is for durable goods excluding defense and aircraft.

This should be more consumer oriented then the other chart.  This shows growth in even worse shape.  It also looks we could be in a recession.

Both these charts are extremely weak for a fourth quarter.  It is hard to argue either is showing the economy is set to pick up.  Maybe the regional manufacturing surveys in Feb. will give us a better idea.  There seems to be a lot of optimism about the economy that so far does not seem to be justified.  The market has been disconnected from the current economic data.  I am sure they will reconnect down the road, but which way.  Will the economy pick up or will stock prices drop?  Time will tell.


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