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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Current sentiment picture

First up is the NAAIM survey.

Source

This survey shows some of the active money managers have started taking some profits.  At 94 last week it was down from the 104 reading the week before.  That 104 survey showed all survey participants were net long.  This probably explains why Friday's SPX consolidation break out did not cause a rush of short covering.  If longs are starting to take profits now we could actually get a pullback.

Here is the latest Bespoke poll.

Source

We don't really have a lot of history on this one yet.  However, the extreme bullish readings around the Nov. low sure turned out to be correct.  We now have a very extreme bearish reading.  The extreme bearish reading in the spring of 2012 was right near the start of a significant sell off.  However, the reading over the summer did not see any significant selling in the market.  I find it interesting that it is so bearish with price at bull market highs.  This is very unusual for a sentiment survey.  Will they be right?

Next up is the II survey. 

Source

Not much difference this time.  Bullishness remains at extreme readings.

Here is a look at the AAII survey.

Source

The number of bulls has dropped down 42% now.   Most declines start with this survey below 45% bulls so it is in the normal area for a high.

Sentiment data has started to become less bullish.  I think this makes it more likely the market goes sideways or we get a pullback.  The market is very overbought and people seem to be losing interest in pushing it higher from here.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.