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Wednesday, January 9, 2013


It has been a while since I checked in on the gold related ETFs.  Lets start with the weekly GLD chart.

GLD is trying to hold the weekly 100 SMA (white line).  That was the area of support in 2012 that eventually launched the late summer rally.  Will it hold again?  Lets zoom in to the daily chart.

Whats with those big red volume bars?  Is that some kind of volume climax?  Price is hanging just below the 200 SMA.  This appears to be an area of possible support on both the weekly and daily charts.  However, GLD has not shifted back into accumulation mode on the volume yet.  This looks like a place to make a low, but the jury is still out on whether that will happen or not.

In GLD and GDX last Sept. I wrote

I circled the massive topping formation.  The blue line is today's close which you can see is up into the bottom of the overhead resistance area.  A normal stock chart like this would have pretty high odds of having a considerable downside reaction once it stops.  

Here is the weekly GDX chart.

I guess GDX acted like a normal stock after all.   I think that qualifies as a considerable downside reaction from the overhead resistance.  What happens now?  Lets look at the daily chart.

There are several tests lower that were met with buying and left some candle tails.  There are actually more big green volume bars then red bars over the last few weeks.  This is different then the GLD chart.  This seems to be making a legitimate attempt at making a bottom.  I don't really like the weekly chart here.  If we get a bounce, I don't think we will get much further then a test of the weekly 18 SMA.  That would still be a decent move from here.


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