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Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Empire manufacturing survey

The Empire manufacturing survey came in negative yet again.  This was much worse then expected.  There has not been a positive Sandy affect on this data like it appeared there might have been on the Philly FED.  Lets look at the charts.

At -7.78, this is the six month in a row the general business conditions index has been negative.  After a few negative months in 2011, there was a big surge in the index late in the year that is not happening this time.  Even though the future conditions index ticked up a bit, it was not a significant move that might give us a reason to believe a surge in the current conditions is likely.  The only other negative Jan. print in this data series was in 2009.  That of course was in the depths of the last recession.  Will this weak start to the year turn around next month?  I guess we will see.  Lets look at the sub indexes.

Here is the new orders index.

The new orders index ticked down again.  This does not bode very well for an uptick in the main index next month.  This has now been negative 6 out of the last 7 months. 

Next up is the employment index.
This index ticked up slightly, but it is still negative.  This has now shown contraction for four months in a row.

This is the six month outlook for new orders.

This index bottomed last Aug., but so far has not translated into actual new orders.  Unfounded optimism so far.  Will that change in 2013?

This is a six month expectation of capital expenditures.

This chart may mean more for future economic growth then the others.  At 4.3 this index is barely positive.  There was a noticeable drop in Cap. Ex. last fall.  Is this a sign it is not necessarily set to pick up again in 2013?

This is a really weak report to start the year off.  Much weaker then in any Jan. except 2009.  Will that weakness continue next month?


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