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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Daily update 1/8

Starting to get a little more interesting.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


SPX pulled back enough to test its 6 SMA on an increase in volume.  It has bounced off the lows the last two days, but still closed lower then the prior day.  Price is still extended from the 18 SMA.  Lets zoom in to the 195 minute SPY chart.


There was a notable pick up in volume in the morning down move.  There are now two big red volume bars.  Is this a shift into distribution mode?  Notice the volume back in Sept. right after the high.  It started out the same way with a couple of big red volume bars.  Its too soon to tell if that is the case, but it is certainly a possibility.  It will be interesting to see what happens to the volume when we have a good rally. 

Over the next few days we will get a look at how the market reacts to the initial earnings reports.  Expectations were lowered considerably over the last few months, but stock prices have not reflected that.  I suspect earnings misses will be punished more then beats will be rewarded. 

Price is extended in the short term and the market is overbought in the long term.  However, we have had two down days in a row.  Will the bulls show up tomorrow to take it higher?  Too bad my crystal ball does not seem to be working tonight.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.