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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Daily update 1/24

SPX hit 1500 and found a few sellers.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

That is an indecisive candle sometimes called a rickshaw man.  The volume increased today over yesterday, but we closed barely positive.  Here is the chart of new highs and SPX.

The number of new highs was almost as high as we saw back at the high in Sept.  This looks like another buying climax and is very likely a short term high.  Unlike Last Sept. when nearly every important index was at rally highs together that is not the case today.  The copper ETF is not and neither is the COMPX index.  This is much more likely to be a final high then that one was.  If that is the case the market should fall away faster this time.  This really and truly looks like a blow off top.  It is lot like a mirror image of the 2009 low.  SPX kept going down, but JJC and COMPX did not.  Then the explosion to the upside.  The long trade is very crowded and leveraged just like people were heavily short into that low. I guess we will see what happens.

Here is an interesting table I saw.


I had to do a double take at that.  There are actually two 40% declines after a strong start of similar magnitude.  What will this year bring?


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