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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, January 11, 2013

Current sentiment

As you can imagine the sentiment is getting a little bit frothy these days.  Lets start with the NAAIM chart.

Source

The survey shows an increase from 76 to 83 in the last week.  That is quite a bit of new longs above the gap.  Keep that in mind if we end up going below the low of the year.  We are also above where we were in Sept.  The last few weeks have given us the highest readings in almost two years.  You can also see the market has not gone much higher before a pullback with readings in the 80s. Quite a bit of froth here.

Here is the latest II survey.

Source

The II survey is back above 50 again.  It was slightly higher at the spring and Sept. highs, but not much.  Readings above 50 are fairly rare historically.  A little bit of froth here in this one as well.

Next up is the AAII survey.

Source

This survey is at the highest levels it has been since last spring.  While not really frothy, it is considerably more bullish then it was at the Sept. high.

These surveys are showing some frothiness.  The VIX is at the lowest levels since 2007.  The long trade is pretty crowded. 

Here is the put/call ratio chart.


I have overlayed the VIX on top of the 10 and 20 DMAs of the put/call ratio.  SPX is up in the top of the chart.  Notice how most of the time the VIX moves up and down in the same general direction as the put/call ratio MAs.  However, we have a very big disparity at the moment.  There were two other disparities that look very similar that are circled on the chart.  Both of those instances were followed by significant sell offs.  Is this a warning sign?  I guess we will see.

Bob


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.