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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, January 28, 2013

Current sentiment picture

The sentiment continues to get more frothy.  Here is the latest NAAIM chart.

Source

The current NAAIM number is 86.  There are very few readings that high in the data that goes back to 2006.  On 1/25/2012 the number was 56.  Frothy now, but was low then.

Here is the II survey.

Source

The bull/bear spread is now 31 points and is wider then it was at the Sept. high.  A spread greater then 30 points has historically indicated a top is close by.  We are there in this one.

Here is the latest AAII chart.


Source

This one has the most bulls since late 2010.  They were correct then as the market continued higher.  I circled the peak at the final high in 2007.  It was slightly more bullish at 54 as opposed to the current 52 reading.  Needless to say there is plenty of optimism here.

Besides the NAAIM number being much higher then last Jan. check out this chart.


Last Jan. about 50% of NYSE stocks were above their 200 DMAs as opposed to 82% now.  We never got that high last year.  The last time we were this over bought was in 2011.  The market went into a long trading range shortly after that.  As we know it ended up crashing later in the year.

I got an email with a chart that is down right scary for bulls.  Unfortunately they did not give a source link so I could not show it on the blog.  The email said it was from a Bank of America survey of professional investors.  The chart is of their cash position and goes back to 2003.  It shows they have the lowest cash position in that time frame.  The previous low water marks were in 2007 and 2011 right around those tops.  It is considerably lower now.  If anybody happens to see that survey on the internet please let me know.  I would love to show that chart.

We have a much different picture this year then last Jan.  There is a lot of optimism while the market is much more overbought.  We also have revenue and earnings growth rates that are lower.  I don't know exactly how this will play out, but I think it will be different then last year.

Bob



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Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.