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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, December 7, 2012

Sentiment

It has been a while since I looked at the sentiment picture.  Lets see what we got.

First up is the NAAIM survey of active money managers.

Source

We can see these guys are pretty heavily long.  There has only been a couple of times they were more long this year.  There is not a lot of fuel here for the upside, but there is on the downside if the market takes that path.

Here is the Investors Intelligence poll.

Source

Neither the bulls or bears are near an extreme level.  I don't think there is much to glean from this one.

Source

My usual source for the chart has not been updated with this weeks survey for some reason.  Here is last weeks chart and try to imagine the blue bull line going from 40 to 42%, LOL.

Source

This is the most bullish individual investors have been in the last 3 months.  Only one other reading was this high since back in the spring.  This sentiment survey is not always a good contrarian survey.  Sometimes they are at least somewhat right.  When a price reversal happens when either the bulls or bears are in the 40-45% range it can lead to a good move.  This doesn't really tell us if the market is likely to reverse though.

Here is the put/call ratio.



The 21 day MA has turned up, but the 10 MA has not.  Will the 10 day turn back up to confirm the 21 day (bearish) or will the 21 day turn back down and confirm the 10 (bullish).   The majority of the time when there is a big separation it is the 10 day that turns first.  Oddly, both MAs are at very similar levels to where they were when the market crashed last year (circled area).  Of course it does not crash every time the MAs look like this, but it does indicate the market could go down sharply from here.   This kind of looks like we should be at a decision point much like the price charts I showed in the last daily update.

Sentiment surveys show the majority is bullish.  The put/call ratio is not quite confirming that and may in fact be indicating a big move down is coming.  Stay tuned to the price action here.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.