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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, December 21, 2012

Philly FED data

The Philly FED manufacturing data came in much better then expected this month after coming in much worse then expected last month.  I am sure this is all a Sandy affect.  It is probably a bit hard to say exactly  how meaningful this is.  Here is the main index chart.

The last few months have seen quite a bit of volatility in the number going back and forth between positive and negative.  The six month forecast did not have as big a bump as the current activity index.  It is likely that some if not most of the positive move is from rebuilding after Sandy.  This survey covers New Jersey so it is the survey that will be the most affected by the storm.  The rebuilding may distort the effectiveness of this survey for months relative to the national economy.

Here is the new orders index.

New orders ticked up to 10.7.  This is the highest reading since Feb.

Here is the employment index.

The employment index is the highest since April.  It was only marginally positive at 3.8 though.

Here is the future new orders index.

The future new orders was in the same area it has been all year.  It did tick up, but it was not as high as it was back in Sept.

Here is the future employee index.

The future employee index ticked up this month, but remains somewhat below where it was last spring.

There was quite a contrast between the Philly FED survey and the Empire survey that was worse then expected a few days ago.  It is possible that both of these surveys will be more affected by repairing damage from Sandy then by the national economy for many months to come.  It will be interesting to see how the other regional surveys outside the north east look.  That might give us a better picture of whether the national economy is starting to pick up or not.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.