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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Daily update 12/20

A bit of a rebound today.  SPY goes ex dividend tomorrow so it will be down in the morning.  That also is probably why nobody wanted to sell today.  I don't know what happens now.  It could depend a lot on the talk out of Washington.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


SPX is back inside the upper Bollinger band.  Volume was lower on the rebound today then it was on the move down yesterday.  We can see that on SPY as well on the 195 minute chart.


I have readjusted the support and resistance lines since the price action the last three months just ripped up and down without much regard to them.  I have marked the three tops with red resistance lines and the last two swing lows with green support lines.  We will have to wait and see if any of them mean anything.  There is also an apparent price channel forming now.  We last touched the upper line.  Is a trip to the lower line in the cards?  Both red volume bars from yesterday were higher then today's green ones.  We haven't clearly shifted into distribution on the volume yet, but that remains a possibility.  It was up at these price levels in Sept. that the bullish volume dried up.  Will that happen again, or will people keep piling in?

The fiscal cliff talks are going just about like I expected.  There is a lot of talk to make people think they are actually negotiating, but there isn't really anything being done.  Will the market care as we get closer to the end of the month?  Despite the positive day in SPX, the VIX ended the day up another 1.79%.  I think this is one of the biggest SPX/VIX divergences I have ever seen.  It looks like a big move is brewing to me.  With the market already loaded up with longs it seems more likely the end move will be down.  I guess we will see about that.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.