If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, November 23, 2012

Sentiment shift

I found this sentiment chart on Bespoke kind of interesting.  Check this out.

Source

The big spike up is on optimism for a possible deal in Washington.  I think people will be disappointed when it comes.  The first thing that sticks out at me is that up until Sept. of this year most weeks had more bears then bulls.  They were right during the spring correction, but look at the summer data.  There were way more weeks where the bears outnumbered the bulls.  That all came to an end in Sept.  Right as the market topped people all of a sudden became believers.  Up until that time there were 8 weeks with more bulls versus 19 weeks with more bears.  Since the Sept. high we have had 2 weeks with bears outnumbering bulls versus 8 weeks with more bulls.  I wrote in Sept. that the high felt like an upside capitulation to me.  I would say it was definitely a bear capitulation event looking at this chart.  They only started doing this poll on a weekly basis back in Feb. so we don't have any more data then this.  Even though the data is much more limited then I would like to see, it does show what usually happens at major tops.  People all of a sudden become convinced the market really will just keep going up.  I assume this is engineered by Wall Street.  When they see a bear market coming they want people to buy their inventory and be the bag holders.  The game remains the same, LOL.  Don't be the bag holder.

I hope they keep doing this poll.  It may prove to be very interesting over time.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.