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Friday, November 23, 2012

Sentiment shift

I found this sentiment chart on Bespoke kind of interesting.  Check this out.


The big spike up is on optimism for a possible deal in Washington.  I think people will be disappointed when it comes.  The first thing that sticks out at me is that up until Sept. of this year most weeks had more bears then bulls.  They were right during the spring correction, but look at the summer data.  There were way more weeks where the bears outnumbered the bulls.  That all came to an end in Sept.  Right as the market topped people all of a sudden became believers.  Up until that time there were 8 weeks with more bulls versus 19 weeks with more bears.  Since the Sept. high we have had 2 weeks with bears outnumbering bulls versus 8 weeks with more bulls.  I wrote in Sept. that the high felt like an upside capitulation to me.  I would say it was definitely a bear capitulation event looking at this chart.  They only started doing this poll on a weekly basis back in Feb. so we don't have any more data then this.  Even though the data is much more limited then I would like to see, it does show what usually happens at major tops.  People all of a sudden become convinced the market really will just keep going up.  I assume this is engineered by Wall Street.  When they see a bear market coming they want people to buy their inventory and be the bag holders.  The game remains the same, LOL.  Don't be the bag holder.

I hope they keep doing this poll.  It may prove to be very interesting over time.


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