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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Recent economic data

Lets start withe the ADS chart.


In 2003 and 2005, the index got this low without a recession occurring.  It looks like do or die time for this indicator.   Any lower from here and it will get increasingly difficult to argue that we are not in a recession. 

This next chart is the LEI coincident to lagging indicator.


This index has rarely gotten this low since this data series started.  This is truly a weak economy.  It is hard to say we are not already in a recession.  It is even harder to say that even if we are not in one yet, that there is any combination of tax hikes and/or spending cuts that will not throw us into one.

Lastly, lets look at industrial production.


We have been down to this level of year over year growth without being in recession, but it is pretty rare.

There is certainly a lot of data that points to a weakening economy.  It appears to me that new Apple products are helping to hold up the retail sales data.  The only other piece of economic data that is holding up has been the employment data.  There are some employment indicators I have shown on the blog that indicate that may not last much longer.  I hear people on TV telling me the economy is improving, but I can't see it in the data.  I think I have made it pretty clear I don't care much for opinions, I want facts.  The facts do not support a rebounding economy yet.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.