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Wednesday, November 28, 2012


It has been a while since I peeked in on GLD and GDX.  Lets start with the daily GLD chart.

The up move over the last few weeks kind of looks like a bear flag or rising wedge type pattern.  The volume has been very low for most of the time.  This looks more like a corrective move to me rather then the start of a real rally.  Price crossed the 50 SMA to the upside, but did not confirm the break above.  Today it closed back below the 50 again.  It never quite hit the 200 SMA or the green uptrend line on the big decline.  I think this might have some more down side testing to do.  I will be watching to see if it breaks the blue lower trend line. In that case, I would like to see a hit of the green uptrend line which is around 164 at the moment.

Here is the daily GDX chart.

GDX broke below my green support line on the big decline.  I put a blue horizontal line at that low so you can see how far down into the summer price action it went.  It clearly has not had as big of a bounce back as GLD had.  That was a little bigger move down then I would have liked to have seen.  I think it is pretty important that GDX holds around that Nov. low on any downside testing.  I don't see anything in this chart that suggests it is ready to take off on the upside yet. 


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