Daily update 11/29

There is nothing I hate worse then being wrong.  Fortunately it does not happen all that often.  I kind of thought that the 11/8 gap down on high volume was a break away gap to the downside from the fall consolidation at the highs.  I thought it would likely go unfilled for quite a while.  I guess the market just had to prove me wrong as it mostly filled that gap today.  There are no more gaps up above left to fill.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

At the high today we touched my red resistance line.  SPY actually touched its daily 50 SMA.  SPX came up three points short.  Maybe tomorrow.  We clearly broke the upper down trend channel line.  However, I think we are just beginning to make a new wider channel, but we will have to see how it develops.  Had the market gone back and tested the Nov. low successfully we could have had a bullish pattern.  We would have been oversold and stretched making odds of a successful test pretty good.  However, going up to test the daily 50 SMA from below on a spike up move like this probably leaves very little chance of a successful test of the Nov. low.  I am confident we will test that low down the road.  Lets zoom in to the SPY 130 minute chart.

Curiously SPY stopped at the last red resistance line I have on this chart.  Funny how a totally random market keeps hitting and stopping at lines I put on charts months in advance, LOL.  It must be dumb luck over and over again.  It can't be possible that the market is not totally random!  I have another SPY chart in another work space that I use during the day that somehow did not have this line on it.  Therefore, I was oblivious for a good part of the day that we had resistance here, LOL.  I bought some SPY calls twice thinking the market might make a little run higher and it got slapped back both times and I had to scratch the trades.  I loaded the workspace that has this chart in the afternoon to look at something else and I happened to see the resistance line.  I must have accidentally deleted it or never put it on my other chart to begin with.  So basically I had a bad day.  I was wrong about the post election day gap being filled and I had not noticed we were at important resistance.  Lets take a peek at the 60 minute chart.

SPY could not get an hourly close above the resistance line. Notice the big red volume bar on yet another sound bite out of Washington.  I don't know how analyze a market that makes 200 point DOW moves up and down based on something somebody says.  The daily chart still looks very bearish to me, but over what time frame does that play out.  Check out the chart of the initial move down from the 2007 high.

The circled price action looks kind of similar to the current move up to me.  I expect something similar to play out.  There should be a pullback at some point followed by another rally attempt.  In 2007, the market made a lower high, but in other instances the market makes a double top or slightly higher high.  This market is acting very much like a bear market.  Do not be the bag holder.

The sub intermediate trend has been updated to neutral with a downward bias.  The short term trend should have been upgraded to up last night, but I was asleep at the wheel.  Sorry about that.

Bob