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Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Daily update 11/21

I found some interesting data on the market around Thanksgiving.


True to past history, today was a positive day.  The statistics for Friday are different based on the time period included.  However, both time periods show a negative bias on Monday. 

Today did not tell us much of anything.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX came within one point of the 18 SMA today.  This is the target area for my oversold buy signal I reported on last Thurs. night.  We are still a little short of the 1395-1400 resistance area so there may be a little more up on Friday.  The volume declined markedly today for the holiday.  I don't think we can tell much by that.  I don't know how to look at this chart any other way then a sharp bounce from a deep oversold condition. Lets look at the 130 minute SPY chart.

SPY stopped at the 50 SMA on this time frame.  Price is really struggling to make any headway here.  I think the odds are we will retest last week's low again in the not too distant future.  I have seen a lot of people proclaiming the low is in and it is up and away from here.  I just don't see anything in the charts to back that up yet.  I will be watching the hourly 18 SMA on SPY for a sign the market is rolling over again.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody,

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