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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Chicago PMI

The latest Chicago PMI number was a bit below expectations.  Here are the latest charts.

 Source


The index has not recovered from the big dip it took a few months back.  I mentioned this before, but this was the only manufacturing index that did not collapse in the recession scare in 2011.  It is joining the other indexes this time.  Lets look at the internals.

Here are the new orders and backlog sub indexes.

No sign of a rebound in these indexes yet.  Backlogs are contracting pretty quickly now.  New orders will be needed to maintain employment pretty soon.

That brings us to the employment index.


The employment index is on the edge of contraction now.  All these charts are worse then they ever were last year.  None of the manufacturing data in Oct. showed any real sign of a meaningful uptick.  Layoffs are coming very soon if the economy does not start picking up again.

Bob

2 comments:

Eric Von Jares said...

I have been surprised to see layoffs being announced already. Thanks for the insight, Bob.

Traderbob58 said...

The regional manufacturing employment indexes have been sending out warning signals. I guess reality is starting to catch up now.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.