If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Empire data and retail sales

This week starts off on a busy note.  Lets start with the Empire manufacturing data.


The uptick in the six month outlook from last month did not last long.  Notice late last year it turned up sharply into year end.  The current index is slightly less negative then last month though.  Still no positive cross on that index like late last year.  How about the sub indexes.

New orders were slightly less negative, but still negative nonetheless.  The shipments index went negative for the first time.  That will start to have more effect on GDP if it stays that way next month.

The employment index ticked negative for the first time this year.  Will that continue into next month?

This next chart is for the six month outlook of new orders.

This index ticked down this month.  Last year it started up strongly into year end.  Will it repeat that pattern this year or not?

The Empire data is not showing any clear meaningful uptick in activity this month.  The shipments and employment indexes going negative are important if they continue that way next month.

On to retail sales.  This one is kind of interesting.  I guess it all depends on how you look at it.


Now that looks pretty good doesn't it.  Here is a different view.


When you look at the year over year change it is not quite as impressive.  Retail sales could have turned down and this is just a blip up.  Too hard to tell at this point.

Here is a slightly different look yet.


That view makes them look just a little bit worse yet.  I guess it is all in how you want to see the data.  That same article ( Source) has a table of the retail sales data broken down by industries.  The table shows the data with and without seasonal adjustments.  Here is what the author said about the table.

Here is what should be jumping out at you.  The entire gain for the month of September came from seasonal adjustments to the underlying data.  There was not ONE major category that showed a month over month gain on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

Having never looked at the raw data before, I don't know if that is common or not.  It does strike me as a bit odd that the non adjusted data does not show any increases at all.  I don't know about in your area, but around where I live the check out lines in the stores I have been to lately are pretty empty.  I have a feeling the data is not as strong as the headline numbers suggest, but I guess you can make up your own mind on that.


No comments:


The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.