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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

? 3/26/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

?- 4/5/21

? 4/1/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Up 4/5/21

Up 4/1/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Daily update 10/31

The weather delay pushed the opening of trading to the end of the month.  The last day of the month almost never starts a new move.  However, the first day of the month often does.  Maybe we can get a read on direction tomorrow.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


This is day five with closes in a fairly tight range.  Are we making a low or are we consolidating at the lows for another leg down?  The bears keep selling gap ups almost immediately after the open.  How many more times can we test the lows here and they hold?  Check out the 130 minute SPY chart.


The 50 SMA has crossed below the 100 SMA for the first time since the positive cross in late June.  This is yet another sign of a loss of momentum in this market.  The volume pattern looks pretty bearish as well.  All this downside testing indicates the bulls are not real frisky despite open ended QE.  I guess the earnings guidance has probably sobered up the market. 

What happens now?  It is very unusual after a down move to spend this many days sideways.  Most five day patterns like this happen after up moves.  We are still quite a ways from the 18 SMA on the daily chart.  So far nobody has cared that we are a bit oversold.  Will the bulls be able to get a short squeeze going?  I am surprised the dip buyers are not more ambitious this close to the highs.  That may be a sign the market is very weak overall.

Chart practice has been updated with DOV the stock today. 
http://traderbob58-chart-practice.blogspot.com/

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.