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Friday, October 12, 2012

Daily update 10/12

I hope everybody has noticed the market trend section right below the poll question.  I see in the latest poll that some of you do not have rules for determining the current trend of the market.  I had a feeling that would be the case which is why I created that section.  I think it is extremely helpful even for day trading to understand what the market trends are.  Today, I downgraded the sub intermediate trend to down and the intermediate trend to neutral.  This means the bulls have to work harder to get control of the market again.  This also means swing trade shorts are likely to be better then longs for now.

Here is the daily SPX chart.

Double top confirmed, but at top of support zone. SPX closed right on top of the 50 SMA.  Will support cause a bounce?  We do not have blue bars on this time frame.  Lets zoom in to the 130 minute SSO chart.

As you can see we still don't have blue bars on this time frame.  Price is not particularly extended.  All market internals are on sell signals now.  None of my oversold buy signals have fired yet.  This is a slow and easy move down.  The kind that can be sustained because of the lack of fear.  The VIX at 16 is certainly not showing any fear.

Since we do not have any oversold buy signals, any significant bounce will likely take a news event.  Since they sold the good consumer sentiment data and good earnings from JPM and WFC today, I have to wonder exactly what that could be.  I would think any bounce from here will be short lived and a selling op.

Chart practice has been updated with PRGO the stock for today.


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