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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Daily update 10/11

It did not take the bears long to sell into the gap up this morning.  Lets look at the daily SPX chart first.


The 18 SMA is turning down noticeably.   That removes upside pressure from the market.  It is going to take more work for the bulls to take control of this market back.  SPX is still trying to hold that swing low.  Will it do it?  Lets zoom in to the 60 minute SSO chart.


This chart would be more supportive of a rally tomorrow if they gap up the futures again.  I don't think we are oversold enough to get the extra buying pressure to make an important low.  If they do rally again tomorrow, I think it might last longer then today, but still be a dead cat type bounce.

Here is a peek at the current breadth chart.


The 10 DMA lines got a negative cross over today.  This is a weak cross though.  The breadth data that is going to drop off tomorrow was slightly negative.  It could flip back if tomorrow is a positive breadth day.  We will have to see what happens there.  The McClellan oscillator is turning up from a minor oversold condition.  That could support another up day from here.

Tomorrow is a tough call.  We could bounce or break the last swing low.  If we bounce, I think it will be short lived.  This does not look like any kind of an important low to me.  SPX is just above the 50 SMA.  I can't see us getting this close and not testing it.

A break down here could send us below the 50 SMA pretty easily.  The lower support line at 1420 on SPX could be tested fairly quickly.  Remember that would confirm the double top pattern.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.