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Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Empire manufacturing survey.

The latest Empire survey came in and the current data was pretty bad.  Here is a look at the chart.


The current indicator took a plunge for sure.  However, the future indicator went up a bit.  We can see an upturn like that last fall that was followed by an upturn in the current indicator the next month.  Lets look at some of the sub index charts.

Another dip in these important sub indexes.  The shipments index is the only one not contracting yet.  Check out the employment data.

The employment index took a rather large dip and the average work week is now in contraction.  Conditions are getting much closer to a contraction in employment.  Without an uptick in new orders that may happen next month.

Lets look at the future business sub indexes to see how respondents feel about the future.

There was an uptick in the future new orders and shipments.  The unfilled orders ticked down again.  The uptick in the future new orders index last fall was followed by an uptick in current new orders the next month.  Will that happen again?  The uptick this time is from lower levels and is not nearly as strong.  We will just have to see if it means a true uptick in economic activity is coming or not.

Last year the economic data crashed in response to a market crash.  We have a totally different situation today.  The economic data is getting weaker while the market is at the highs.  Oil prices dropped into the upper 70s last fall.  Today it is near 100.  The very warm weather late last year lowered heating costs and gave people extra spending money on top of the lower energy prices.  I don't know that we will have the same uptick in economic activity this time.  I guess we will find out next month.


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