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Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Daily update 9/4

Another buy the dip day.  Here is the daily chart for SPX.

We are still below the 18 SMA, but no confirming break down.  This kind of looks like a short term low forming here. Will a catalyst come along and make the bulls be willing to push price higher?  There is a short term descending triangle forming here.  Those triangles have slightly higher odds of breaking down rather then up.  This formation is easily seen on the 60 minute SPY chart.

SPY stopped at the upper trend line again.  There are several touches on both lines now.  One is going to give it up in the near future.  An upside break out should lead to a retest of the Aug. high.  A break down after this many weeks testing the high, should lead to a sizable pullback.  What are the odds of either event happening?  For every positive, I can find a negative.  I guess maybe that means it is 50/50. 


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