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Friday, August 31, 2012

Daily update 8/31

I would say the Bernanke speech did just what he wanted from what I heard on TV afterward.  Everybody that thinks there will be QE at the next meeting in Sept. thought the speech verified that.  Everybody that thinks there won't be QE before the election seemed to think the speech verified that too, LOL.  I think that was probably the desired result. 

Lets start with the daily SPX chart as usual.

We bounced, but ended the day below the 18 SMA.  The gap is filled so there is no unfinished business up here.  This was a very odd week though.  Check out the SPY 60 minute chart.

Every day this week except yesterday, SPY traded above its 50 SMA.  However, at the end of the day it closed below it.  SPY also respected my upper trend line today.  I think that validates it as being significant. A break out above it should be bullish in the short term.  With almost every day this week trading above the 50 SMA, the bulls had plenty of chances to take control of the market and they failed to do so.  That would seem to indicate there is more down side to go here. 

Here is a look at the current breadth chart.

I mentioned that we might get a positive cross on the 10 MAs, but that would not necessarily mean the market was going to take off to the upside again.  The positive cross did happen, but the market did not take off.  The negative cross over adds more evidence that there is more downside to come.

Have a great labor day weekend for all those that get the holiday.  For those outside the states have a great regular weekend!


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