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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Daily update 8/22

The bulls did not get much going today.  Lets start with the usual daily SPX chart.

We got the first white price bar in quite some time.  I don't think this tells us much yet.  Lets zoom in to the 60 minute SPY chart.

There was a bounce after the FOMC meeting minutes came out at 2:00 PM that took SPY back above the 50 SMA.  Will it stay there tomorrow?

Here is a look at the breadth indicators.

The McClellan oscillator is negative, but the 10 DMA breadth chart is not.  However, from this position another down day will do it.  Cross overs within 3-4 days of a major price retest usually means the test was successful.  In this case, a successful test of the high would be bearish.  This leads me to conclude that tomorrow is the telling day.  If tomorrow is down the bears should be in control of the market for now.  If the bulls gather themselves up and mount a significant rally, we could end up breaking out the upside.  A small bounce day could still be inconclusive. I think the bulls need to show real strength here to win.

Chart practice has been updated if interested.  http://traderbob58-chart-practice.blogspot.com/


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