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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Daily update 8/16

Retest.  I guess all it took was a little worse then expected Philly FED data to get enough buyers in.  Here is the SPX daily chart.


I put a line in on today's close to make it easier to compare with the action back in April.  SPX has closed above this level exactly twice this year.  When the new highs dropped so low I began to think we might not get here.  That was probably pretty stupid, of course it was going to get there, LOL.  This is where the rubber meets the road.  We will see if the buyers are willing to push price significantly higher or not.  I am pretty sure there will be some profit takers here.  I think most people were waiting for this. 

Here is the daily chart from the 2007 top, just for fun.


I posted in some yahoo groups that we were making a major top and a new bear market was coming.  Naturally I got told that was impossible and got several private emails calling me names, LOL.  I guess I got the last laugh that time.  There are an awful lot of similarities in these two charts.  I suggest you study them closely.  The divergences in the economically sensitive indexes are way more pronounced this time.  The economic data is also way worse, but I guess fundamentals don't really matter do they. 

This sure looks to me like we are about to start another bear market.  Whether you think I am nuts or not, I strongly suggest you develop a plan to protect yourself on the outside chance I am right again.

Bob 

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.