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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Daily update 8/15

Yet another boring day in the market.  The longer the narrow range lasts the bigger the move out of the range is likely to be.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

It looks like both buyers and sellers are on vacation this month.  Here is my theory.  Good news does not drive the market up because it is less likely we will see QE.  Bad news does not cause the market to go down because that makes QE more likely.  Usually a failed breakout like yesterday will see follow through within two days if it is going to.  However, in this environment I am not sure that even if we don't go down tomorrow that we won't follow through on the downside in the future.  The longer we stay here the more the patience of short term traders will be tested.  If enough of them decide to bail it could start the ball rolling again.  I think the 60 minute 50 SMA for SPY is a good bull/bear line.  I am hoping I won't be asleep at the computer when the market decides which way it is going.

The chart practice site has been updated if interested.  http://traderbob58-chart-practice.blogspot.com/


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