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Friday, August 10, 2012

Daily update 8/10

More consolidation on light volume.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

This is day four above the trend lines.  They came out and bought the gap down again, but still no sign of a willingness to push price.  This was a positive day and the highest close since May first.  Despite that higher close we only had 120 new highs today.  That was lower then the last two days.  Even with the roller coaster in July we had more then that every day.  Even on the bigger down days.   This looks more like a tired market then one gathering steam.  I have commented a number of times over the last few weeks that new highs were the only really strong market internal indicator.  That appears to be subsiding now even at the highs of the rally.  We may still test that April high, but I won't be surprised if we roll over without getting there now.  I will be looking at the 60 minute 50 SMA for a bull/bear line with this price pattern.  Since we have stalled for several days a pullback now would likely be bigger then the prior pullbacks from those spike highs.

In the slightly bigger picture I was allowing for a possible bullish retest of the June low.  Had we done that successfully, I think it would have been a bullish sign for the market for the intermediate term.  However, we are in the process of retesting the high instead.  Given the divergences of market internals and important indexes, a failure seems likely.  That could set up a test of the June low after all. 

The chart practice site has been updated http://traderbob58-chart-practice.blogspot.com/.  Can you pick the right chart to answer the question?

Market status and sector status pages have also been updated.


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