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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Some market internals

The last few days have really taken a whack to some market internals.   Starting with the number of stocks above their 200 SMA.


This indicator is in a leading divergence with SPX as it has taken out its 7/12 low.  This is pretty serious technical damage.

Next up is the number of stocks above their 40 SMA.


This indicator took a serious hit and is also in a leading down side divergence. 

Here is the cumulative volume index.


This is a volume based indicator and is one of my favorites.  There was a big divergence at the last high.  It also has broken its 7/12 low.  All three of these indicators were hit hard enough for their 10 DMAs to cross below their 20 DMAs.  This is usually a pretty good sell signal when it happens after a lower high in the market.

How about the summation index.


The summation index has crossed below its 10 SMA issuing a sell signal.  This is a slower indicator most of the time so I usually don't wait for the 10 to cross the 20 before calling it a signal.  Like the other indicators downward crosses need a lower high to be valid signals.

One last item is the new highs.


The new highs have held in there very good.  However, there is a problem with the new high data that has happened in the last 15 years.  There are a lot of bond fund ETFs on the NYSE now.  If a lot of them are making new highs it distorts the numbers.  I think that may be the case now as bonds in general have been doing real well.

I see the futures are up pretty big this morning on something out of Europe.  There are a lot of market internals are on sell signals so it will be interesting to see if they end up selling the bounce.  One strong day will not turn on buy signals in these indicators from their current positions.  If the rally holds today it will still take some upside follow through.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.