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Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Quarterly SPY chart

This is a chart that I suspect few people have ever looked at.   Here is a quarterly chart of SPY.

The Telechart software is the only one I have ever used that can show this chart.  I don't know if there are others or not.  We have had several hanging man bars (denoted by letters) since 1990.  Points a, d, and e ushered in prolonged down turns, with the last two being very severe.  Point b saw further price appreciation in the short term, but had its price low tested four quarters later.  Point f had its price low tested in the next quarter, but then the rally resumed.  Only point c saw the market continue up uninterrupted.  In the post on the summation index (http://traderbob58.blogspot.com/2012/06/mcclellan-summation-index.html) I wrote
"I would say the odds of a retest of the low are pretty high."  Based on what I see in this chart, I think I have to stay with that assessment.

Notice the candles marked 1 and 2.  The only time we had candles that looked like that, the economy went into recession.  It is very odd to have two candles like that so close together while the economy kept growing.  I am sure this has to do with the uncertainty that is constantly in the air.  I am pretty sure recessions have not been eliminated permanently.  If we can have such severe sell offs without a recession, what does the market do when we do have one? 


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