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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, July 27, 2012

GLD and GDX

There could be some things going on in the gold and miner complex.  Check out the weekly GLD chart.


The week is not over yet, but it is trying to form a bullish engulfing candlestick.  It is also attacking the 18 SMA.  Lets zoom in to the daily chart.


Price is getting back up into the resistance zone marked by the red lines.  This is the fourth time up above the lower line.  One of these days you would think it would stick.  The high today came right at the 100 SMA. This is not a convenient place to go long with the 100 SMA and other resistance and a big gap down below.  However, both the daily and weekly charts look like they are trying to make a serious attempt at starting a rally.  A low risk entry might present itself with a pullback into the gap or after some consolidation.

Here is the weekly GDX chart.


This candle is forming a bullish engulfing bar like GLD.  In my last report on GDX, I mentioned it was trying real hard to hold the .786 retrace level and form a crown pattern.  It looks like it has managed to do that.  Here is the daily chart.


It looks like we have made a successful test of the May low.  This chart still has more work to do, but it is developing nicely.  I would not make any long term prognostications here.  There is a lot of overhead resistance from the top formation last year easily visible on the weekly chart above.  The lows in that formation are very sloppy and it is hard to define where the biggest resistance might be.  This does look like a decent shot at making a low that could test up to the 200 SMA which is around 50 now.  It is moving down so by the time GDX would reach it that MA would be lower.  That is a very ugly top.  The first time GDX rallies up into the bottom of that formation it is likely to suffer a considerable pullback.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.